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Forensic intelligence for prediction markets. Adjusted win rates, strategy classification, and signal scores that cut through the noise.

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POLYMARKET INTELLIGENCE43d 8h left

This Whale Has a
100% Win Rate. Wrong.

$172M volume. 100% naive win rate. Sounds like a genius—until you adjust for zombie positions and mark-to-market opens. Real win rate: 47.2%. Every whale tracker lies to you. We don't.

Top Whale #1$172M volume
Naive win rate100%
Adjusted win rate47.2%

Gap: -52.8pp after zombie detection & mark-to-market

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2,847

Wallets Tracked

~16pp

Avg Win Rate Inflation

$340M+

Volume Analyzed

5

Strategy Archetypes

Weekly Whale Report

Top whale moves, exposed win rates, and forensic findings. Free, every Monday.

Why Naive Win Rates Lie

Adjusted Win Rates

We account for zombie positions (resolved markets where wallets never exited) and mark open positions to market. The real win rate is always lower.

Zombie Positions

A wallet held a position through resolution and lost everything. Naive trackers ignore these because the wallet ‘never traded’ — but the loss is real.

Signal Scores

Composite 0–100 score weighting category expertise (30%), conviction (20%), strategy type (25%), cluster membership (15%), and entry timing (10%).

Strategy Classification

ML-powered classification into 5 archetypes: INFO_TRADER, QUANT_HEDGE, MOMENTUM, MARKET_MAKER, and NOISE_WHALE. Know who you're following.

Every “Top Whale” Is Worse Than You Think

Top Whale #1
100% naive
47% adj
-53pp
Top Whale #2
78% naive
61% adj
-17pp
Top Whale #3
65% naive
42% adj
-23pp

Stop blindly copying whales.

The leaderboard is free — no signup required. See every whale's real win rate, strategy, and signal score right now.

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