How It Works
Why every whale tracker you've used is lying to you — and what we do differently.
The Problem
Naive trackers only count closed trades where a wallet actively sold. They completely ignore positions that expired worthless — giving the illusion of genius-level performance.
| Wallet | Naive Win Rate | Adjusted Win Rate | Zombies Found | Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7a3f...e9b2 | 98% | 51% | 47 | -47pp |
| 0x1c8d...4f21 | 89% | 58% | 31 | -31pp |
| 0x9e2a...b7c4 | 82% | 44% | 38 | -38pp |
A “98% win rate” means nothing when 47 zombie positions are hidden from the count.
How We Fix It
Zombie Detection
We scan every resolved market for positions a wallet held through resolution without closing — these are real losses that naive trackers miss.
Adjusted Win Rate
We recalculate win rates by including zombie losses and marking open positions to current market price, not just counting closed winners.
Strategy Classification
Feature-engineered classification into 5 archetypes (INFO_TRADER, QUANT_HEDGE, MOMENTUM, MARKET_MAKER, NOISE_WHALE) so you know who you're following.
The Formula
// Naive (what everyone else shows)
Naive WR = closed wins / closed trades
// Adjusted (what we show)
Adjusted WR = resolved positions in your favor
/ (all resolved positions + zombie losses)
Market resolved and your position was on the winning side
Every market you participated in that has a final outcome
Positions held through resolution that expired worthless