Why every whale tracker you've used is lying to you — and what we do differently.
Naive trackers only count closed trades where a wallet actively sold. They completely ignore positions that expired worthless — giving the illusion of genius-level performance.
| Wallet | Naive Win Rate | Adjusted Win Rate | Zombies Found | Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7a3f...e9b2 | 98% | 51% | 47 | -47pp |
| 0x1c8d...4f21 | 89% | 58% | 31 | -31pp |
| 0x9e2a...b7c4 | 82% | 44% | 38 | -38pp |
A “98% win rate” means nothing when 47 zombie positions are hidden from the count.
We scan every resolved market for positions a wallet held through resolution without closing — these are real losses that naive trackers miss.
Read more →We recalculate win rates by including zombie losses and marking open positions to current market price, not just counting closed winners.
Feature-engineered classification into 5 archetypes (INFO_TRADER, QUANT_HEDGE, MOMENTUM, MARKET_MAKER, NOISE_WHALE) so you know who you're following.
Read more →Our adjusted metrics and signal scoring system have been backtested against 90 days of historical Polymarket data. The results speak for themselves:
+5.0pp
Alpha gain vs. naive whale tracking
0.59
Sharpe ratio
Signal Score-filtered trades (score ≥ 70) consistently outperformed both naive “copy the whale” strategies and unadjusted top-10 leaderboard picks. Traditional whale trackers overstate win rates by 10–20 percentage points — our adjusted metrics correct for this, delivering a genuine informational edge.
Every trade gets a Signal Score from 0–100 that measures how likely it is to be an informed, high-quality trade. The score is a weighted composite of five wallet-level factors:
Historical win rate in the specific market category (politics, crypto, etc.)
How well the wallet's classified archetype correlates with profitable trading
Position sizing relative to the wallet's typical volume — larger = more conviction
Whether the wallet belongs to a coordinated group of wallets acting together
When the trade was placed relative to market resolution — earlier is better
Trades with entry prices above 0.55 receive an additional penalty — buying at high prices reduces the risk/reward ratio and is penalized accordingly.
Full Signal Score breakdown →Every tracked wallet is classified into one of five trading archetypes using feature-engineered ML classification. This tells you who you're following, not just what they're doing.
Event-driven traders who act on material information before the market fully prices it in. They tend to have high win rates in specific categories and trade around news catalysts.
Systematic hedgers who use prediction markets to offset risk in other positions. They trade methodically across multiple correlated markets with consistent sizing.
Trend followers who pile into markets that are already moving. They buy when prices are rising and sell when falling — profitable in strong trends, vulnerable to reversals.
Liquidity providers who buy and sell on both sides of a market to capture the spread. High volume, many markets, moderate win rates — they profit from flow, not direction.
Low-conviction traders with no discernible edge. Large position sizes but poor win rates, inconsistent timing, and no clear strategy pattern. Following these wallets is risky.