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POLYMARKET INTELLIGENCE

The Truth About
Whale Performance

Naive whale trackers overstate win rates by 10–20 percentage points. We forensically adjust for zombie positions, mark-to-market open trades, and strategy classification to reveal who actually knows what they're doing.

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2,847

Wallets Tracked

~16pp

Avg Win Rate Inflation

$340M+

Volume Analyzed

5

Strategy Archetypes

Why Naive Win Rates Lie

Adjusted Win Rates

We account for zombie positions (resolved markets where wallets never exited) and mark open positions to market. The real win rate is always lower.

Zombie Positions

A wallet held a position through resolution and lost everything. Naive trackers ignore these because the wallet ‘never traded’ — but the loss is real.

Signal Scores

Composite 0–100 score weighting category expertise (30%), conviction (20%), strategy type (25%), cluster membership (15%), and entry timing (10%).

Strategy Classification

ML-powered classification into 5 archetypes: INFO_TRADER, QUANT_HEDGE, MOMENTUM, MARKET_MAKER, and NOISE_WHALE. Know who you're following.

Example: What Naive Trackers Show vs Reality

Top Whale #1
78% naive
61% adj
-17pp
Top Whale #2
72% naive
58% adj
-14pp
Top Whale #3
65% naive
42% adj
-23pp

Stop blindly copying whales.

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